Information for Metaculus

Table of contents

Basic information

Item Value
Country United States
Facebook username metaculus
YouTube username @metaculus4776
Twitter username @metaculus
Twitter username Metaculus
Website https://www.metaculus.com
Team page https://www.metaculus.com/about/
Launch date 2015-09-01
Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus
Last recorded date when we made major data updates for this org 2024-08-30
Donations List Website (data still preliminary)

Positions count by year

Hover over a name to see the position and date range. This table only includes positions where at least the start date is known. The positions count can count the same person multiple times if they held different positions; similarly, the list of staff may include the same person multiple times if they held more than one position during a single year. For each year, a person is included if they were at the organization for any part of the year; this means the actual staff count at any point during the year can be lower (or higher, if some staff held multiple positions in a single year).

Year Positions count Researchers General staff Associates Board members Advisors
2014 1 Carroll Wainwright
2015 4 Greg Laughlin Carroll Wainwright, David Levine Anthony Aguirre
2016 5 Greg Laughlin Carroll Wainwright, David Levine, Kris Kitchen Anthony Aguirre
2017 6 Greg Laughlin Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Kris Kitchen Anthony Aguirre
2018 9 Greg Laughlin Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, Christian Williams, David Levine, Jacob Lagerros, Kris Kitchen, Tamay Besiroglu Anthony Aguirre
2019 9 Greg Laughlin Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Jacob Lagerros, Kris Kitchen, Matej Vrzala, Tamay Besiroglu Anthony Aguirre
2020 15 Greg Laughlin Alex Lawsen, Alyssa Stevens, Carroll Wainwright, Daniel Sluder, David Levine, Gaia Dempsey, Juan Cambeiro, Kris Kitchen, Matej Vrzala, Matthew Barnett, Tamay Besiroglu Alyssa Stevens Anthony Aguirre Steven Schkolne
2021 15 Greg Laughlin, Nikos Bosse Alex Lawsen, Carroll Wainwright, Carroll Wainwright, David Levine, Gaia Dempsey, Juan Cambeiro, Kris Kitchen, Matej Vrzala, Tamay Besiroglu, Tom Liptay Alyssa Stevens Anthony Aguirre Steven Schkolne
2022 25 Greg Laughlin, Nikos Bosse Alex Lawsen, Atakan Seçkin, Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Gaia Dempsey, Juan Cambeiro, Kris Kitchen, Luke Sabor, Matej Vrzala, Nate Morrison, Rudolf Ordoyne, Ryan Beck, Sylvain Chevalier, Tamay Besiroglu, Tom Liptay, Tom Liptay Alyssa Stevens Anthony Aguirre Burak Nehbit, Steven Schkolne, Tamay Besiroglu, Welton Chang
2023 24 Greg Laughlin, Nikos Bosse, Will Aldred Atakan Seçkin, Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Gaia Dempsey, Juan Cambeiro, Juan Cambeiro, Kris Kitchen, Luke Sabor, Nate Morrison, Nate Morrison, Rudolf Ordoyne, Ryan Beck, Sylvain Chevalier, Tom Liptay Anthony Aguirre Burak Nehbit, Juan Cambeiro, Steven Schkolne, Tamay Besiroglu, Welton Chang
2024 25 Greg Laughlin, Nikos Bosse, Will Aldred Atakan Seçkin, Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Deger Turan, Elis Popescu, Gaia Dempsey, Kris Kitchen, Luke Sabor, Nate Morrison, Rudolf Ordoyne, Ryan Beck, Sylvain Chevalier, Tom Liptay, Tom Liptay Anthony Aguirre, Gaia Dempsey Burak Nehbit, Juan Cambeiro, Steven Schkolne, Tamay Besiroglu, Welton Chang
2025 23 Greg Laughlin, Nikos Bosse, Will Aldred Atakan Seçkin, Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Deger Turan, Elis Popescu, Kris Kitchen, Luke Sabor, Nate Morrison, Rudolf Ordoyne, Ryan Beck, Sylvain Chevalier, Tom Liptay Anthony Aguirre, Gaia Dempsey Burak Nehbit, Juan Cambeiro, Steven Schkolne, Tamay Besiroglu, Welton Chang

Number of full-time staff at the beginning each year

The following table lists some dates and people who were at the organization on the given date (namely, the start of the year). The table may not list every person who worked for the organization (e.g. they could have joined and left in the middle of a single year). This table excludes associates, interns, advisors, and board members.

Date Staff count Staff
2015-01-01 2 Carroll Wainwright, David Levine
2016-01-01 3 Carroll Wainwright, David Levine, Greg Laughlin
2017-01-01 4 Carroll Wainwright, David Levine, Greg Laughlin, Kris Kitchen
2018-01-01 5 Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Greg Laughlin, Kris Kitchen
2019-01-01 7 Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Greg Laughlin, Jacob Lagerros, Kris Kitchen, Tamay Besiroglu
2020-01-01 6 Carroll Wainwright, David Levine, Greg Laughlin, Kris Kitchen, Matej Vrzala, Tamay Besiroglu
2021-01-01 10 Alex Lawsen, Carroll Wainwright, Carroll Wainwright, David Levine, Gaia Dempsey, Greg Laughlin, Juan Cambeiro, Kris Kitchen, Matej Vrzala, Tamay Besiroglu
2022-01-01 11 Alex Lawsen, Carroll Wainwright, David Levine, Gaia Dempsey, Greg Laughlin, Juan Cambeiro, Kris Kitchen, Matej Vrzala, Nikos Bosse, Tamay Besiroglu, Tom Liptay
2023-01-01 15 Atakan Seçkin, Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Gaia Dempsey, Greg Laughlin, Juan Cambeiro, Kris Kitchen, Luke Sabor, Nate Morrison, Nikos Bosse, Rudolf Ordoyne, Ryan Beck, Sylvain Chevalier, Tom Liptay
2024-01-01 16 Atakan Seçkin, Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Elis Popescu, Gaia Dempsey, Greg Laughlin, Kris Kitchen, Luke Sabor, Nate Morrison, Nikos Bosse, Rudolf Ordoyne, Ryan Beck, Sylvain Chevalier, Tom Liptay, Will Aldred
2025-01-01 16 Atakan Seçkin, Carroll Wainwright, Christian Williams, David Levine, Deger Turan, Elis Popescu, Greg Laughlin, Kris Kitchen, Luke Sabor, Nate Morrison, Nikos Bosse, Rudolf Ordoyne, Ryan Beck, Sylvain Chevalier, Tom Liptay, Will Aldred

Full history of additions and subtractions

This table shows the full change history of positions. Each row corresponds to at least one addition or removal of a position. Additions are in green and subtractions are in red. If a position name changed, it is listed simultaneously as an addition (of the new name) and removal (of the old name) and colored yellow. Additionally there are faded variants of each color for visited links.

Date Number of positions Number of positions added Number of positions removed Positions added Positions removed
2014-10-01 1 1 0 Carroll Wainwright
2015-01-01 2 1 0 David Levine
2015-09-01 4 2 0 Anthony Aguirre, Greg Laughlin
2016-08-01 5 1 0 Kris Kitchen
2017-11-01 6 1 0 Christian Williams
2018-06-01 6 1 -1 Christian Williams Christian Williams
2018-07-01 7 1 0 Tamay Besiroglu
2018-11-01 8 1 0 Jacob Lagerros
2019-03-01 7 0 -1 Christian Williams
2019-05-01 6 0 -1 Jacob Lagerros
2019-12-01 7 1 0 Matej Vrzala
2020-03-01 9 2 0 Daniel Sluder, Juan Cambeiro
2020-05-01 10 1 0 Alyssa Stevens
2020-06-01 11 1 0 Gaia Dempsey
2020-07-01 12 1 0 Alex Lawsen
2020-08-01 11 0 -1 Daniel Sluder
2020-09-01 11 1 -1 Alyssa Stevens Alyssa Stevens
2020-10-30 12 1 0 Steven Schkolne
2020-11-01 13 1 0 Matthew Barnett
2021-01-01 13 1 -1 Carroll Wainwright Matthew Barnett
2021-08-01 13 1 -1 Tom Liptay Carroll Wainwright
2021-12-01 14 1 0 Nikos Bosse
2022-04-01 16 2 0 Atakan Seçkin, Rudolf Ordoyne
2022-04-22 15 0 -1 Tamay Besiroglu
2022-05-30 20 5 0 Burak Nehbit, Christian Williams, Sylvain Chevalier, Tamay Besiroglu, Welton Chang
2022-06-01 18 0 -2 Alex Lawsen, Alyssa Stevens
2022-08-01 19 1 0 Ryan Beck
2022-09-01 19 1 -1 Tom Liptay Tom Liptay
2022-10-01 20 1 0 Nate Morrison
2022-12-01 21 1 0 Luke Sabor
2023-01-01 20 1 -2 Rudolf Ordoyne Matej Vrzala, Rudolf Ordoyne
2023-03-01 21 1 0 Will Aldred
2023-07-01 20 0 -1 Juan Cambeiro
2023-08-01 21 2 -1 Juan Cambeiro, Nate Morrison Nate Morrison
2023-10-01 21 1 -1 Juan Cambeiro Juan Cambeiro
2024-01-01 22 1 0 Elis Popescu
2024-04-01 23 2 -1 Deger Turan, Gaia Dempsey Gaia Dempsey
2024-07-01 23 1 -1 Tom Liptay Tom Liptay

List of people (41 positions)

Person Title Start date End date Employment type Source Notes
Atakan Seçkin Head of Design 2022-04-01 full-time [1], [2]
Nikos Bosse Research Coordinator 2021-12-01 [3], [2]
Will Aldred Research Analyst - AI Forecasting 2023-03-01 full-time [4], [2]
Luke Sabor Software Engineer 2022-12-01 full-time [5], [2]
Sylvain Chevalier Technical Product Manager 2022-05-30 [6], [2]
Deger Turan Chief Executive Officer 2024-04-01 full-time [7], [2]
Christian Williams Director of Communications & Data 2022-05-30 [6], [2]
Elis Popescu Senior Software Engineer 2024-01-01 [6], [2]
Tom Liptay Director of Forecasting 2024-07-01 full-time [8], [2]
Rudolf Ordoyne Forecasting Analyst & Frontend Developer 2023-01-01 full-time [9], [2]
Nate Morrison Chief Operating Officer 2023-08-01 [10], [2]
Ryan Beck Forecasting Program Coordinator 2022-08-01 full-time [9], [2]
Anthony Aguirre Founder & Chairman of the Board 2015-09-01 board member [11], [2]
Greg Laughlin Founder, Research & Development Fellow 2015-09-01 [12], [2]
Carroll Wainwright Cofounder, data scientist, and software engineer 2014-10-01 [13], [14], [2]
David Levine Co-founder 2015-01-01 board member [13]
Gaia Dempsey Board Member & Special Advisor 2024-04-01 advisor [15], [2]
Juan Cambeiro Advisor 2023-10-01 contractor [16], [2]
Tamay Besiroglu Advisor 2022-05-30 advisor [6], [17]
Welton Chang Advisor 2022-05-30 advisor [6], [17]
Burak Nehbit Advisor 2022-05-30 advisor [6], [17]
Steven Schkolne Advisor 2020-10-30 advisor [18], [6], [17]
Kris Kitchen Consultant 2016-08-01 [19]
Jacob Lagerros Project lead: AI forecasting 2018-11-01 2019-05-01 [20]
Alyssa Stevens Student intern 2020-05-01 2020-09-01 intern [21]
Alyssa Stevens Product Marketing Associate 2020-09-01 2022-06-01 part-time [13], [21]
Daniel Sluder Content Coordinator 2020-03-01 2020-08-01 [22]
Matthew Barnett Data Science & Software Engineering 2020-11-01 2021-01-01 [13], [23]
Matej Vrzala Project Engineer 2019-12-01 2023-01-01 [13], [24]
Alex Lawsen Community Moderator 2020-07-01 2022-06-01 part-time [25]
Tom Liptay Program & Operations Director 2021-08-01 2022-09-01 full-time [8]
Tom Liptay Product Director 2022-09-01 2024-07-01 full-time [8]
Rudolf Ordoyne Forecasting Analyst 2022-04-01 2023-01-01 full-time [9], [2]
Nate Morrison Chief of Staff 2022-10-01 2023-08-01 full-time [10]
Christian Williams Growth Marketer 2017-11-01 2018-06-01 [26], [2]
Christian Williams Growth Lead 2018-06-01 2019-03-01 [26], [2]
Carroll Wainwright Chief technology officer 2021-01-01 2021-08-01 [13], [14]
Gaia Dempsey Chief Executive Officer 2020-06-01 2024-04-01 full-time [13], [15]
Juan Cambeiro Biosciences Analyst 2020-03-01 2023-07-01 contractor [13], [16]
Juan Cambeiro Biosecurity Program Manager 2023-08-01 2023-10-01 contractor [13], [16]
Tamay Besiroglu Strategy & Operations Lead 2018-07-01 2022-04-22 [27], [28]

Products (0 products)

Name Creation date Description

Organization documents (0 documents)

Title Publication date Author Publisher Affected organizations Affected people Document scope Cause area Notes

Documents (0 documents)

Title Publication date Author Publisher Affected organizations Affected people Affected agendas Notes

Similar organizations

Organization Number of people in common List of people in common
Epoch 2 Tamay Besiroglu, Matej Vrzala
Future of Humanity Institute 2 Tamay Besiroglu, Jacob Lagerros
Future of Life Foundation 1 Anthony Aguirre
Future of Life Institute 1 Anthony Aguirre
OpenAI 1 Carroll Wainwright
Partnership on AI 1 Carroll Wainwright
AI Objectives Institute 1 Gaia Dempsey
Centre for the Governance of AI 1 Tamay Besiroglu
Lightcone Infrastructure 1 Jacob Lagerros
Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute 1 Jacob Lagerros
Epoch 1 Matthew Barnett
80,000 Hours 1 Alex Lawsen
Open Philanthropy 1 Alex Lawsen